Written by Pat Davis | 27 April 2010

The draw in Rome promised a world of hurt for the world's Number One Roger Federer.  Several people could have given him trouble, including Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal (in the semis), but today it was Ernests Gulbis who turned the tide in winning probably the biggest match of his life

The first question out of some intrepid reporter's mouth to Roger Federer after his shocking loss today should probably be:  how much practice did you get in the last month?  The Swiss star showed flashes early on of being ready to win; after all, he captured a fairly routine-looking first set, 6-2.  But then Federer took a hike, losing the second set 6-1.  His play continued in this erratic vein right up until the final game of the match, when Gulbis got a second chance to serve out the match and he did so without a hitch. 

So what happened to Federer?  He supposedly hung his head in sorrow after losing early in Miami to Berdych, and before that to Baghdatis early at Indian Wells,  then pronounced himself ready to tackle the clay season big-time.  After all, the man will be defending - for the first time - his French title at Roland Garros this spring.   Surely he wanted to start the campaign by looking...um....a LITTLE good in Rome, no? 

No.  "Ratty" is a word I save for the truly egregious among us.  Now we must use it in addressing Roger's play today.  His game was all over the place.  Yet he still had chances to win it, notably when Gulbis tried to serve it out at 5-4.  His nerves cracked just enough that a few strange errors flowed into his game, and Federer broke back to even the third set.

Then just as quickly Federer gave the break right back.  The man played so well to unhinge Gulbis on the first closing attempt that it was sheer contrariness to imagine him giving the thing right back.  When you saw that last game you have to wonder, what WAS Federer doing this past month?   My mouth dropped open in surprise at the strange turn of events.

My mouth dropped open for Gulbis too.  A few weeks ago I got to review his effort in winning his first title in Del Rey Beach, defeating Ivo Karlovic in the final.  After that win it appeared that 2010 was finally going to be Gulbis's breakthrough season.  His match yesterday against Marcos Baghdatis was going to be a real test for where he was now, I thought.  Instead Gulbis made it look rather routine.  He served blazingly well, he ran the Cypriot forward to the net as much as he did side to side, using the drop shot brilliantly.  It's a wonderful shot, the disguise is good, he releases it very quickly and without much air at all.   Baghdatis was soundly defeated in that match-up.  Then you had to look at the draw and wonder if Federer was going to be up to the task. 

Frankly, I did not like my man's chances at all, and so I got up this morning and turned on the telly with a sense of dread.  To my surprise Federer was closing out the first set in fairly routine fashion.  How sad, I thought; I really wanted that bang-up match. 

To Gulbis's credit, he didn't cave in the second set; in fact, he grabbed an early break and nearly made it stand up.  His serving was brilliant throughout.  The Gulbis serve when it is working is as effective and deadly as Federer's:  both men can place it well around the box, and it moves hard and fast like a laser beam.  His court sense improves by the day, he moves into net fast and can punch the volleys away.  His return game is big too.  His groundies were more consistent that Federer, and Gulbis was not afraid to go for the big shot when he needed to.  His game is big enough that he could beat Federer, and beat him on a pretty steady basis if he wanted to.  I think he is that good.

A lot of the guys have looked strange to me in the first European clay events.  Then I realized:  a lot of them have gotten haircuts.  Gulbis on the other hand has an unruly-looking mane of curls that gives him a kind of wild-child appearance, as if he had just tumbled out of bed.  Maybe that's why he has had good results finally this year:  he kept his hair, and like Samson, his strength.  I like to think his hair matches his game:  big, intense, free-flowing at times, other times a little TOO big, he needs to know more when to rein himself in. 

But the Latvian is definitely on his way up, and today Roger Federer became his latest victim.  It may have taken him seven match points, but he finally did it.  Now Gulbis is one of the few players who can say he has an equal record - 1-1 now - against Federer. 

Go Ernests!

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